Forum MVP Rude Posted September 26, 2015 Author Forum MVP Report Share Posted September 26, 2015 Yeah u are right. Ole miss at 3rd while averaging 60 a game vs TCU who gives up about that many. Compare their wins to Muchigan St and Ohio state and who looks the most impressive. The only difference is that ole miss started the season around 20th ranked. No way TCU or Ohio state would be top 5 if they started the year ranked 20th. Again be thankful you don't play a ranked team until last game. Usually teams who have a weak conference schedule at least 1 decent opponent out of conference but why risk it with a schedule UK could go undefeated with. But I hope u cover this week. As much as I dislike Ohio state, I don't want to see u lose money every week. Unfortunately there are so many OSU fans that the spreads go WAY up from the opening line and so far I think you would have covered 2/3 with the opening line vs 0/3 with the closing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Tom Banjo Posted September 26, 2015 Forum MVP Report Share Posted September 26, 2015 No way Kentucky waltz through big ten. Losses to Michigan, Michigan St, Ohio st, northwestern. KY does not go undefeated with Ohio st schedule. Just stop it. I don't think an SEC team would get through big 10 this year. Depth may lack but it's the best at the top. Ohio st and Michigan St would have better chance of running through SEC then anyone in SEC running big 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Teacher Matt Posted September 26, 2015 Forum MVP Report Share Posted September 26, 2015 You and your ranked teams hard on is laughable .... make your mind up .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Rude Posted September 26, 2015 Author Forum MVP Report Share Posted September 26, 2015 Yeah if u want to convince yourself that only having to win 2 games vs 2 good teams is the same as having to play 6 solid teams go ahead and live in fantasy world. Last week barely beating western Illinois or whoever would be a loss if you play against a conference with depth. Only having to be "on" twice to go undefeated is a cake walk in comparison. On another note anyone watching the TCU game?? Holy shit TCU has a pathetic defense and I mean pathetic. They are likely a bottom 10 defense in the nation. Their tackling looks like a high school team. I think they will lose today. If not for a horrible snap Texas tech would be in control right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Tom Banjo Posted September 26, 2015 Forum MVP Report Share Posted September 26, 2015 My point is that no team in the SEC can handle Ohio st on. Thus, any SEC team would be at beat 2 loss team. They lose to Michigan St and Ohio st. You're acting like an on game to beat the SEC 4th best is the same as needing to be on to beat big 10 first. You're crazy. Auburn effort a few weeks ago loses to the 7th best team in the big 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Rude Posted September 26, 2015 Author Forum MVP Report Share Posted September 26, 2015 MC this power ranking is only based on a performance based computer ranking. It only takes into account how much you win or lose by and ranks everyone based on score. Strength of opponent a based on how they fared vs others and so on. The sec has the top 4 teams based on performance. There's no way u can really argue that Ohio state and Michigan state have actually played like the top 2 teams based on how they have performed. Just look at the results. This ranking ONLY takes into account the results. That's what it should be based on correct??? adult image host Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Rude Posted September 27, 2015 Author Forum MVP Report Share Posted September 27, 2015 Based on this 4 SEC teams would "handle" Ohio state based upon play so far. U can argue otherwise but the 20-13 game last week at home vs northern Illinois and Ohio state being 0-4 vs the spread this year speaks more truth than just a blind hatred of the sec. If Ohio state and Michigan state were in the SEC they would be the 5th and 8th best teams based strictly on performance so far. But u are right. They would still beat UK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP bs69 Posted September 27, 2015 Forum MVP Report Share Posted September 27, 2015 Did a lot better this week. Give it a few more weeks to sort itself out. Much as I hate to say it, Michigan may be ranked this week. And how about those Hoosiers that we play next week, undefeated! If they were an SEC team, they would be ranked right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Teacher Matt Posted September 27, 2015 Forum MVP Report Share Posted September 27, 2015 SEC sucks ... Ole Miss Alabama LSU and Texas AM all looked much much worse than Ohio State ... who is 1-3 against the spread but 4-0 and defending national champions. .. Big 10 much better than the sec that is foe sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Teacher Matt Posted September 27, 2015 Forum MVP Report Share Posted September 27, 2015 LSU Alabama Ole Miss Georgia ... none of these fake mighty teams covered the spread you are really reaching when your argument about Ohio State is they did not cover 3 games on which they just continue to just win baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Dead duck Posted September 27, 2015 Forum MVP Report Share Posted September 27, 2015 Man I had Utah to cover but they are straight woopin Oregons ass. Ducks hve no D at all. And this year no mariota to outscore opponent. Man poor ASU had the ball on the 1 down 21-0 fumbled and it was returned 99 yds for score, then fumbled the kickoff right back for another score Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Dead duck Posted September 28, 2015 Forum MVP Report Share Posted September 28, 2015 Had a pretty good pickin week. 3-0 on my college. And you could have added 14 to each spread and theyd have all still covered. Also had bengals falcons and vikings parlayed sunday. The luck didnt translate to picking powerball numbers saturday so the never ending tour is still on hold. Dammit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP bs69 Posted September 28, 2015 Forum MVP Report Share Posted September 28, 2015 Houston -6.5 Kansas State +8.5 Oklahoma -6.5 Houston is my lock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Teacher Matt Posted September 28, 2015 Forum MVP Report Share Posted September 28, 2015 Ohio State. -21 ..lock Georgia. -2 Clemson. pick em Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Dead duck Posted September 30, 2015 Forum MVP Report Share Posted September 30, 2015 NW -4. Lock NCST -4 1/2 VT -4 1/2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Rude Posted September 30, 2015 Author Forum MVP Report Share Posted September 30, 2015 week 3 Duck 3-0 1-0 lock bs69 3-0 1-0 lock rude 2-1 1-0 lock chris 2-1 1-0 lock matt 2-1 0-1 lock August 1-2 0-1 lock Week 2 BS69 0-3 Matt 1-2 Duck 1-2 Rude 1-2 Lock August 2-1 lock MC 2-1 Chris 2-1 Lock Week 1 BS69 1-2 Rude 1-2 Matt 1-2 Duck 1-2 August 1-2 MC 1-2 Totals BS69 4-5 1-1 lock Rude 4-5 2-0 lock Matt 4-5 0-2 lock Duck 5-4 1-1 lock August 4-5 1-1 lock MC 3-3 Chris 4-2 2-0 lock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Rude Posted September 30, 2015 Author Forum MVP Report Share Posted September 30, 2015 Northwestern -4 texas +15 arizona +17.5 (lock)  How would a ranked Northwestern be only a 4 point favorite at home vs a hapless minnesota? Because they are actually only the 41st best team in the country vs the 60th in minnesota, but that being said they are at home vs a hapless minnesota. Arizona was vastly overrated in the polls but was always much lower in the computer rankings. With the blowout loss last week, people I believe are giving way too much emphasis to 1 game and 17.5 points is a HUGE margin. Stanford is a legit top 15-20 team though.  Oh and FYI Michigan fans, the computers and the spread have you dead even currently vs Michigan state and their hugely overrated AP poll. 20 and 21st in power rankings. People will call it an upset when Michigan wins, but it wont actually be an upset, just like they called UK beating Missouri an upset but UK was favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Tom Banjo Posted September 30, 2015 Forum MVP Report Share Posted September 30, 2015 Northwestern current results say way better than 41. I take them to cover. You need to get over the metrics embrace results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Rude Posted September 30, 2015 Author Forum MVP Report Share Posted September 30, 2015 That metrics is 100% results based. Its based on by how many points you win/lose by and then ranks every team based on how they play against every other. It is within 2 points on almost every spread I have seen besides the Northwestern. They should be around 6 point favs plus the home field.  Of course a spread doesnt determine who will win a game. It just determines who is favored. And when you talk about the hapless teams, road games are their doom, so i think thats a pretty solid pick with northwestern. The initial spread was exactly at 6 and it dropped. Seemed strange to me really.  And if we are embracing results has Michigan state looked better than everyone besides ohio state? Absolutely not. Play is what I base rankings on and so far, Baylor and Ole Miss have dominated more than anyone else. They both also had a semi close call, but who hasnt had one.  And by metrics, there are 5 Big ten teams ranked lower than the lowest SEC team based on play. 10 teams in the top 40 for the sec vs 4 Big ten. Note that the Pac 10 is almost to what the SEC is depth wise. Not many easy teams in the PAC 12. Its about as hard to go through it unscathed as the SEC. And by the metrics, no major conference team has an easier schedule than Ohio state and Michigan state. They each only have Michigan and the other to play that are top 25. Im not saying those are easy games but if you only had to get by 2 teams, then LSU would already be undefeated for the year and Ole Miss just needs 1 more ranked win. Unfortunately they have 4-6 more ranked opponents each.  Im trying to analyze this in a rational way. I tried recruiting, NFL draft, stadiums and facilities, ESPN's power index which they say is the most accurate analysis of team strength there is, coaches and AP polls which show depth but I dont believe are accurate at the top. I dont know what else to say at this point. I think ive shown that I am fact based and do not have the bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Teacher Matt Posted September 30, 2015 Forum MVP Report Share Posted September 30, 2015 I was 2-1 last week ... not 1-2 .. I had Kentucky and Bowling Green so I am 5-4 overall ... not 4-5 . I got $100 riding on this with August so lets get it straight... thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Tom Banjo Posted September 30, 2015 Forum MVP Report Share Posted September 30, 2015 Use your metrics fir you're betting. Leave the rankings to this that know football. When the SEC on top, I hear you like the polls. Now cause the mighty have fallen, you rely on metrics. Only way to compare teams is heads up and over time w common opponents. You can't really tell me someone is better or worse than their ranking because of your metric. What did it say when Ohio st played Alabama last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Teacher Matt Posted September 30, 2015 Forum MVP Report Share Posted September 30, 2015 Metrics smetrics ... just win baby .. I will gladly take a loss if the Buckeyes win without covering .. National championships are not won on how you did against the spread ... and I am smart enough to have not wagered any money on Ohio State the last 2 weeks ... won $300 when they covered against Virginia Tech. ...lost $50 vs. Hawaii ... no bets last 2 games... but I am on the record today .. putting $200 on Ohio State this week vs Indiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Tom Banjo Posted September 30, 2015 Forum MVP Report Share Posted September 30, 2015 Who did it have Michigan St or oregon this year? What about Bama And Ole Miss? Did it accurately call those games? Show me examples in important games when this holds up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Rude Posted September 30, 2015 Author Forum MVP Report Share Posted September 30, 2015 Fixed it Matt. I had u correct on overall but mistyped tbe other. Michigan state will lose though. Ohio state won't lose. Michigan state doesn't have the offense or defense to win every game. 6 SEC teams currently would be favored over Michigan state. Would they lose all those. No. But based on results Michigan state would be underdogs. And your bet this week Matt will of course be determined on the field and you very well may win. Indiana is not a good team. They are 4-0 but scraping by against bad teams. I think this is your week to make the cash. But using the metrics you can also discover spreads that are off what the results have shown so far. I was shocked at that northwestern spread really. Minnesota though is actually ranked higher than Indiana. Minnesota has snuck out late wins even when they were horrible to start a game. I'm a big home field fan in conference games when the spread is small. Hope northwestern isn't a sucker bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Rude Posted September 30, 2015 Author Forum MVP Report Share Posted September 30, 2015 Oh and Matt since Ohio state has underperformed the spreads keep moving down. If they perform up to their potential they could win by 40. Bookies will keep moving spreads as teams don't cover and the key is finding that week. If they had been covering the spread Would be 25. I think this is the week that Ohio state wins big. And MC the computers are based on an average but with emphasis on recent games. That Arizona game is about 7 points off the computer as Arizona was so bad last week. I think that's an overreaction based on their entire body of work. USC is the 3rd best based on the computer models and was bound for a huge rebound. And how have the mighty fallen?? Georgia, ole miss, LSU, Bama, A&M. The sec has lost 4 non conference games. That's less by far than any other conference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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