Forum MVP bs69 Posted October 10, 2016 Forum MVP Report Share Posted October 10, 2016 The pool of potential teams to make the BCS is really dwindling and we are only half way through the season. This may be the year of a 2 loss team or 2 from the same Conference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Teacher Matt Posted October 10, 2016 Forum MVP Report Share Posted October 10, 2016 SEC has one good team ... Alabama Big Ten has 2 good teams.. Ohio State & Michigan ACC has one good team ... Clemson PAC 12 has one good team ... Washington that is as of today... still roughly 3 to 4 teams in the nation that can change the above .. including but not limited to Wisconsin, Louisville, and Texas AM ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Rude Posted October 10, 2016 Author Forum MVP Report Share Posted October 10, 2016 Revise that to say possible playoff teams. And dude A&M has played a much tougher schedule than almost anyone on that list and are undefeated. You are correct that the big 10 only has 2 good teams. The SEC has 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Tom Banjo Posted October 12, 2016 Forum MVP Report Share Posted October 12, 2016 I just don't see 6 elite teams in the SEC. I see bama and I see a and m. You can argue TN but they been woefully inconsistent. If we count them, Wisconsin needs to be included too. I think Matt referring to playoff caliber teams and rude, referring to teams better than average. I won't count Ole Miss, Miss st, lsu, florida or Arkansas as elite. That can change with big wins but I see more losses coming. Someone knocks off bama I may change my mind. Right now those teams like Wisconsin to me. Good but not elite. Not playoff teams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Rude Posted October 12, 2016 Author Forum MVP Report Share Posted October 12, 2016 It's consistency of schedule. You won't lose to indianas and kentuckys. You play enough Florida, auburn, ole miss, Tennessee, Georgia's, you will lose a game. Big ten is great at the top, no doubt. Michigan and Ohio state are the cream of the crop. It's just after Wisconsin and Nebraska, there's no competition. Big tens top 2 may be better than the SEC's top 2, but the big ten has no teeth in the middle. Unfortunately Ohio state doesn't get as many big games as it would like. Great teams want great battles and great matchups. Adding Maryland and Rutgers just brought the big ten down in football. As an OSU fan, I'm sure Matt wants as many Wisconsin and Michigan games as he can get but unfortunately he only gets a few a year. There's a reason that the SEC gets so much talent--lots of big games every week. Even lowly KY gets bama, Tennessee, Florida and Georgia as big games in conference and they are in the weaker side. Last years Iowa and northwestern phenomenon would never have existed in another conference. Iowa only played northwestern and Wisconsin as their 2 toughest games. The fact that you narrow an entire season into saying only playoff teams should be looked at is nonsense. Only a few teams will make a playoff. The season matters for the rest of football. The FPI has Michigan 1st and Ohio state 3rd but also has 6 of the top 12 from the SEC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Rude Posted October 12, 2016 Author Forum MVP Report Share Posted October 12, 2016 Top 60 teams in the counntry by conference using the espn FPI spread based metric.  ACC 3, 4, 8, 14, 26, 28, 33, 46, 50, 56  Big 10 1, 5, 15, 25, 37, 42, 54, 55, 58  Big 12 13, 20, 21, 30, 32, 35, 38, 39  Pac 12 6, 19, 22, 23, 24, 31, 41, 47, 48, 52, 53  SEC 2, 7, 9, 10, 11, 12, 17, 36, 40, 45, 51  Based on this, the Big 12 is by far the weakest overall conference. The Pac 12 has lots of decent teams, but not much in the way of consistent top teams. ACC looks great this year especially for the best basketball conference. They have the southern school advantage with the warm weather.  And of course theres the SEC. Hate them if you will but they are consistent every year putting out top teams. 7 top 20. 4 top 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP bs69 Posted October 12, 2016 Forum MVP Report Share Posted October 12, 2016 You almost have to look at it by division. The SEC west is the best division in football, followed by the Big 10 East, ACC Atlantic and either the SEC East or Pac 12 North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Rude Posted October 12, 2016 Author Forum MVP Report Share Posted October 12, 2016 The big ten east is Michigan and Ohio state. Penn state is next best barely in top 40 with cupcakes at the bottom. I'd put the ACC division with Florida St, Louisville, NC state and Clemson above. All top 20. Also don't think the SEC east should be that high as you have them. The bottom 3 are weaker than usual this year. Georgia is only like 40th in the FPI. Georgia is gonna be great again soon. That QB Easom will likely be a top 2 draft pick in 2.5 years. But he's a freshman and looks it at times. The SEC east will rise again but not this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP bs69 Posted October 13, 2016 Forum MVP Report Share Posted October 13, 2016 Rutgers is the only really bad team in the Big Ten east. Michigan St. has definitely been a disappointment, but I don't think NC ST. is a better team. Indiana is much better than they have been and Maryland and Penn St. are improving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Rude Posted October 13, 2016 Author Forum MVP Report Share Posted October 13, 2016 Just based on the FPI the big ten east has the following rankings: 1,5, 37, 54, 58, 66, 101. Michigan would be around 18 point favs over the 3rd team in the division and around 25 over maryland in 4th. That's not much of a challenge. Last year the AP rankings were way way off the FPI and the Ap poll showed how bad a poll it really was. 12th ranked AP but 60th FPI northwestern played 25th AP but 10th FPI tennessee and were 12 point underdogs but lost by 40. Tennessee lost 3 of their 4 losses to top 10 opponents by 10 total points. The AP dropped Tennessee 3 slots losing by a FG to Bama but jumped northwestern up by scraping by Purdue.  Again this year, the AP had Mich state and iowa ranked way way too high for their talent and level of play and they couldnt continue their lucky play from last year. Indiana has looked mediocre at best in its wins over weak teams this year. Indiana has played 1 team in the FPI top 50, hence the 3-2 record. They beat 58th FPI mich St and played better than the 30 point underdogs against ohio state. But they were 30 point underdogs. I think Indiana may be better than their team last year, but thats not saying a whole lot. At least you arent worse like Kentucky is. Fire stoops.  To put some schedules into perspective. Texas A&M has beaten 3 top 20 FPI teams so far. They have 3 more games in top 20 to go. Michigan has 2 total top 20 games the entire year. Yes Michigan is clobbering teams but these are suck matchups. Michigan only has 1 team left in the top 40 on their schedule. 1. They have 1 team left that they will be within a 20 point spread of them. Sorry but you have to schedule harder out of conference games. I mean Clemson schedules Auburn and South Carolina because they want big TV matchups and the ACC isnt usually that tough and Florida St has 2 top 20 sec teams on their schedule to make up for the usual easy ACC(not this year). Auburn has 5 top 10 matchups. Thats ridiculous. They dont care that they have an impossible schedule to make a playoff. They recruit huge because of big games. No one in the country has a harder big game schedule than auburn. And of course the AP penalized Auburn for losing a close game to Clemson and A&M. It doesnt matter that Auburn beat 1 top 10 team and also destroyed every scrub by 30+, they are ranked 23rd and many teams above them in the AP who havent played a decent team yet and who Auburn would be favored by 10 over. Michigans home schedule is horrible. Their marquee non conference matchup is Colorado. Yes they are improved but come on. Michigan intentionally avoided any tough non con opponent to try to get a playoff spot. Ohio St at least scheduled a team they thought would be a top team in the nation. Colorado hasnt been a good team since the 90s. You have Wisconsin and ohio state to beat and you make a playoff. Ohio state is a 50/50 game. Wisconsin would win 1 in 5 maybe. Michigan has 2 games of national interest the entire year and none until ohio state. Boring.  I'd like to see a 16 team tourney to start the season. Thats your non conference games for the 16 teams that are invited. EAch team gets 2 home and 2 away games. It's like a preseason NIT. Also I hate preseason rankings. Rankings before week 2 or 3 is nonsense anyway. Its the same nonsense formula. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP bs69 Posted October 13, 2016 Forum MVP Report Share Posted October 13, 2016 I think each team needs to play at least 1 tough nonconference game each year. With 9 Conference games, a team should be allowed a couple of easier foes in the early games to get their feet wet. Unlike the NFL, there is no preseason in college, so teams need a couple games to get a look at young players in game action. For the top teams, the out of Conference game cannot be a scrub from one of the other Conferences, although I would love to see an annual Ohio St. v. UK game played in Cincy early every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Rude Posted October 13, 2016 Author Forum MVP Report Share Posted October 13, 2016 I want the Kentucky Indiana game back.  KY Ohio State would be a slaughter. Its a no win game for ohio state. They dont really help themselves with a win and that 1 game in 10 that KY will beat them since they will play like week 1 and anything is possible 1st game, they would destroy their season. You want 1 good team and 2 surefire wins as non conference games. Teams like Indiana and UK prefer their good team to not be a good team as they have a hard time getting to that 6 win mark. Unfortunately this year UK got bama in their west game and Louisville is the best they have ever been and they are going to absolutely crush UK end of the season. UK will use their strategy of trying to wear Jackson down by allowing him 200 yards rushing in the 1st quarter. Thats the best strategy I currently see for them if they dont go dirty and poke him in the eye or shank him in the pile. Too many cameras really for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP bs69 Posted October 13, 2016 Forum MVP Report Share Posted October 13, 2016 I was thinking of Kentucky as one of the sure fire wins and it would help Ohio St. recruiting in the area. Surprisingly, this area rich in High School talent is not dominated by tOSU. They get their share, but lose a lot of good talent to Michigan St. (Dantonio has ties from when he coached at UC) and Notre Dame. Â I have a wager on the National champion team every year with a guy I work with. We each get five picks (flip for first and then every other pick) and then have a midseason pick of two teams for ones that have a chance that didn't get picked before the season. I have: Alabama, Ohio St., Oklahoma, Stanford and Florida St.; he has Clemson, Michigan, Michigan St., Notre Dame and LSU. I figure the 4 teams with the best chance not already taken are: Washington, Texas A&M, Tennessee and Louisville. Any suggestions on how I should order my picks? Anyone I missed that might have a better shot? I considered Wisconsin and Baylor, but think the others are more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Rude Posted October 13, 2016 Author Forum MVP Report Share Posted October 13, 2016 I'd take Washington as a top couple pick. They are a lock to make the playoff. Thats the key. Maximize the teams you have there. Bama has a low win out percentage based on their sos. But they get in with 1 loss likely. Louisville has ONLY cupcakes left. They arent a bad pick to make the playoff if Clemson loses, but then you are looking at 2 1-loss teams and how can you put louisbille above clemson. LSU is 100% out. Losing that 1 scheduled game means they cant win the tie breaker even if they run the table. hurricanes are not their friend in the last 2 years. A&M has a shot, but their schedule is about to get BRUTAL. It would be a miracle to run the table as they have 3 top 10 games left on the schedule.  Based on the metrics and remaining schedule, I try to get Michigan, Clemson and Washington. They all show a 30% win out chance with the weakest remaining schedule. Bama has like a 15% win out with some bruisers upcoming plus a likely 2nd game vs tennessee. But its hard to ever pull against Bama. Saban is the best at having them ready. Michigans hardest game until Ohio State will be at Iowa where they will be a 3 score favorite and no team is higher than 40th. Ohio State has 3 top 25 teams left with more chance of a stumble. Michigan and Ohio State will have to be perfect with their schedules to get in, but I see them both undefeated when they play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Tea Posted October 14, 2016 Forum MVP Report Share Posted October 14, 2016 There's no making up in college football. It's not logistically possible. There are no off weeks both share. Last year LSU was short 1 game too. The only option is to delay the SEC championship game but that could cause a worse nightmare. Imagine an 11-1 bama vs a 12-0 Tennessee. The winner gets last playoff. If delayed then you can't set the bcs LSU v FLA - 11/19Looks like a makeup is indeed possible http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/99/lsu-tigers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Teacher Matt Posted October 14, 2016 Forum MVP Report Share Posted October 14, 2016 Rude babbles on this college football thread ... I just scroll through the mess ... and will simply add this ... the biggest game in college football this week is Ohio State @ Wisconsin... winner stays on a path for possible playoff spot ... LSU with Florida at home stays on the path to be the SEC champs with 2 losses .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP bs69 Posted October 14, 2016 Forum MVP Report Share Posted October 14, 2016 Ended up with Texas A&M and Louisville, the opposition get Washington and Tennessee. He had the first pick. I fell pretty good with my lineup of Alabama, tOSU, A&M and Louisville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Rude Posted October 15, 2016 Author Forum MVP Report Share Posted October 15, 2016 Bama at Tennessee? Irrelevant game? Don't want to burst your bubble. U should enjoy the 1st good matchup in the big 10 this year. U get one at the end of season and this is the other watchable game. And Nebraska is only a 3 point fav over Indiana. Can u say overrated at 10th. Avoid playing 1 good team and the AP will reward you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Teacher Matt Posted October 16, 2016 Forum MVP Report Share Posted October 16, 2016 the SEC again continues to show it has 1 good team, Alabama, and a bunch of average teams ... Tennessee average at best ... Ole Miss as well average at best ... and so on and so on ..overrated teams and conference. .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Tom Banjo Posted October 16, 2016 Forum MVP Report Share Posted October 16, 2016 Bama vs Tennessee proved to be irrelevant as did Tennessee. Ole Miss joined the list of overrated. Bama is for real. Conference looks down on true quality teams. Bama starting to look like a real easy road to playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP bs69 Posted October 16, 2016 Forum MVP Report Share Posted October 16, 2016 Buckeyes pulled a tough one out last night. I think the experience will help them out down the road but I am concerned about the D line play. Wisconsin ran far too easily although I think you had to absolutely mug someone to get called for holding in that game both ways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP acududeman Posted October 16, 2016 Forum MVP Report Share Posted October 16, 2016 the SEC again continues to show it has 1 good team, Alabama, and a bunch of average teams ... Tennessee average at best ... Ole Miss as well average at best ... and so on and so on ..overrated teams and conference. .. Â Let's see if Rude bites...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Teacher Matt Posted October 16, 2016 Forum MVP Report Share Posted October 16, 2016 just speaking the facts ... mind you in a very short to the point post ... don't need no metrics to see the SEC is average with one dominant team ... but im sticking with my pick of LSU running the table and winning SEC with 2 losses keeping the conference out of the playoff ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP bs69 Posted October 17, 2016 Forum MVP Report Share Posted October 17, 2016 The SEC east is 0-7 against the SEC west. There is a really good chance they may go undefeated in those crossover games this year, very lopsided conference. Maybe they should consider realigning? They could bump Missouri and Vandy to the west and Bama and Auburn to the east? That should even things out a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Tom Banjo Posted October 17, 2016 Forum MVP Report Share Posted October 17, 2016 If lsu runs table, they make playoffs and SEC will have 2nd good team. They won't run table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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