Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
bs69

College football

Recommended Posts

Based on metrics the average top 5 team would lose 1/2 of a game b/c there is a 10% shot of losing to a 40th ranked team and when you add up the chances it comes to around .5. The argument I have is if you play no one you have to look great. They don’t. It’s the same reason Ohio state is on the outside looking in. In basketball, everyone deserving gets a shot. If only teams that were 32-4 or better got in, conferences like the ACC would be penalized just like the SEC is in football. In basketball 34-2 teams get 14 seeds while 29-7 teams get 2 seeds. Only football is different. Only in football does a 30th true ranked team like Michigan state get in a playoff to be destroyed because they played nothing and a team that plays good teams gets penalized. If you exclude bama and Clemson, I could see LSU or even Texas A&M running the table in a 16 team playoff. College Football was never meant to be a playoff sport. There are too few games and completely different strengths of schedules. If LSU had won that crazy OT, they would have 2 top 3 teams going 1-1 vs those and 5 other top 25 teams going 4-1 vs those, beating 2 conference division champs, and deserved a spot more than a team playing only 3 top 30 teams going 2-1 against them. Unfortunately the refs blew several calls on the drive to go to OT. 

 

There were 15+ teams this year that didn’t lose to a team ranked lower than any team UCF played plus almost every team with a winning record in a power 5 had a better win than Cincinnati. 

 

Football is the only sport where records are the main factor in their ranking. In basketball records are next to irrelevant. UCF ranked 7 is silly. LSU not getting a top 6 bowl game would also be silly considering their wins over Washington and Georgia and auburn and Mississippi state and close losses vs Florida and at A&M plus the loss to bama. They had the 3rd hardest schedule in the country. Then you have a northwestern at 21 ranked above A&M with the same record. Northwestern lost to Akron and duke. Are u serious. A&M lost to bama and Clemson, auburn and miss state and beat LSU and KY. It’s why A&M would be 10pt favs over northwestern. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Auburn beat Washington, not LSU. To be fair to Northwestern,  they have gone 7-2 in their last 9 games with the two losses being close games with Michigan and Notre Dame. Obviously a much better team now than they were at the start of the year

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

so because A&M played Clemson week 1 thy should be penalized?  Clemson has a top end as good as bama and besides a couple games has completely dominated.  Have you seen northwestern schedule?  It’s as bad as it gets. Wisconsin is an actual bad team with almost no recruiting talent. Iowa is a decent team but still their high end isn’t that high. They both have the same record and A&M has the 2nd hardest schedule in the country and northwestern doesn’t look better with the eye test. They haven’t won by more than 14 all year barely beating Rutgers who is a legit horrible team and losses to Akron and duke. And yes LSU best Miami who disappointed and didn’t turn out to be a top 10 team but was top 30. There’s no comparing northwestern to an A&M team with elite talent. Northwestern doesn’t get blue chip talent. A&M is on pace for a top 5 class next year while northwestern is on track to not recruit a 4 star player even. 

 

Oh and this year the SEC is predicted to have between 11 and 19 1st round draft picks. The talent is lumped down south. This year based on the draft capital spreadsheet, the sec has a chance to have more draft capital points than all other power 5 conferences combined using the Jimmy Johnson point system. That’s almost unheard of and it’s only getting stronger and stronger. 8 separate teams have potential 1st round players taken which would be another conference record. It’s about talent and 1st and 2nd round talent is the key to nfl. 

https://www.drafttek.com/2019-NFL-Draft-Prospect-Rankings/Top-SEC-Players-2019-NFL-Draft.asp

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I would agree that A&M is  better than Northwestern this year. But,  similar to college basketball you can get teams with a lot of 3 star players that are in the system for 4-5 years that can challenge the teams with a lot of 5 star talent playing in their first or second year. That's why teams like Michigan state,  Iowa or Purdue seem to give the Buckeyes fits. Seems like we are breaking in a new secondary every year and they tend to make mistakes. That is what has been so impressive about Alabama,  they seem to be able to integrate those guys every year. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You have to play 3 years of college before pros. You may have new starters but that have been in the program for 3 years min. It’s nkt like Kentucky and 1 and dones. Ohio state had fits because they were badly coached. This is their worst defense in over 20 years. That’s inexcusable for that much talent. Northwestern is not a good team. They are ranked between 40 and 60 in almost every computer metric. Kentucky is overrated as well. They are between 25 and 50 in every metric. The sec west has 5 teams in the top 20 of the fpi and s&p+. Sec has 8 of the top 20 as well. They have to play each other leading to more losses. All are so even. There aren’t 6 Illinois in the sec which creates more losses. There is almost no difference between LSU, auburn A&M and miss state. All are loaded with nfl talent. All have 1st round guys. Only Iowa in the big 10 west is in the top 30 of the metrics. In the fpi, the big ten east has 3 top 10 fpi teams and 3 top 15 s&p+ teams. But besides Michigan osu and penn state, there is zero risk. Michigan state is ranked b/t 30 and 50 in the metrics. Maryland 40-60 and no need to bring up Rutgers. Northwestern hasn’t outscored anyone by 14 this year. Their high end can’t beat Ohio states 3rd worst game this year. It would take osu’s worst with a perfect northwestern to even have a shot. Osu is only 14pt favs which seems ridiculously low. 

 

With the new ratings looks like ou and Georgia have to both lose for osu to get in. Unfortunately bama has no scenario to play Notre Dane. Win and they get ou/osu and lose and they get Clemson. Notre Dame has 0 shot vs Clemson and 10% vs Georgia. Saban and Dabo are brilliant post season coaches. You don’t want either with 4 weeks of game planning. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We could also go back 2 years to when a 10-2 and “12 ranked AP” northwestern played an 8-4 “25th AP ranked” Tennessee. Tennessee was 14 pt favorites and were actually called the underdogs b/c of AP ratings and won by 40. Northwestern that year was a similar 40 something ranked computer team but having no ranked teams all year put them high in the AP rankings which only look at records. It’s honestly lazy. Just saw an NFL ranking that was exactly based on record too. Spread based rankings are more accurate. The AP is hot garbage. It had Kentucky like 11th lol. I watch football and Kentucky never looked that good all year even though they squeaked some wins. I mean Michigan state and Iowa both were “top 5” a few years ago when they weren’t top 20 in computer rankings and we saw them get shellacked. I’ve also been reading several articles pro UCF on playoffs. Much are put out by publicity firms as well as heisman articles so I take most With a grain of salt. These schools may spend 500k for articles and billboards. Lol. UCF is computer 20-30th and that’s for an undefeated team. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Rude said:

You have to play 3 years of college before pros. You may have new starters but that have been in the program for 3 years min. It’s nkt like Kentucky and 1 and dones. Ohio state had fits because they were badly coached. This is their worst defense in over 20 years. That’s inexcusable for that much talent. Northwestern is not a good team. They are ranked between 40 and 60 in almost every computer metric. Kentucky is overrated as well. They are between 25 and 50 in every metric. The sec west has 5 teams in the top 20 of the fpi and s&p+. Sec has 8 of the top 20 as well. They have to play each other leading to more losses. All are so even. There aren’t 6 Illinois in the sec which creates more losses. There is almost no difference between LSU, auburn A&M and miss state. All are loaded with nfl talent. All have 1st round guys. Only Iowa in the big 10 west is in the top 30 of the metrics. In the fpi, the big ten east has 3 top 10 fpi teams and 3 top 15 s&p+ teams. But besides Michigan osu and penn state, there is zero risk. Michigan state is ranked b/t 30 and 50 in the metrics. Maryland 40-60 and no need to bring up Rutgers. Northwestern hasn’t outscored anyone by 14 this year. Their high end can’t beat Ohio states 3rd worst game this year. It would take osu’s worst with a perfect northwestern to even have a shot. Osu is only 14pt favs which seems ridiculously low. 

 

With the new ratings looks like ou and Georgia have to both lose for osu to get in. Unfortunately bama has no scenario to play Notre Dane. Win and they get ou/osu and lose and they get Clemson. Notre Dame has 0 shot vs Clemson and 10% vs Georgia. Saban and Dabo are brilliant post season coaches. You don’t want either with 4 weeks of game planning. 

 Says the guy who had Michigan by, what was it, 24 points over Ohio State just a few days ago?

 

Either your ability to regurgitate and filter what you’re told on ESPN has gotten a lot better in the last three days, or you continue to be ALL OVER the place with your *analysis*.  

 

 

Not sure why you have to be such a hater on my Irish.  They’re 12 and 0.  Very hard to do.  Your reply to me the other day about going undefeated being easy because Boise State and UCF do it was off the mark.  You missed the point entirely.  Let’s do it this way:  there are about 130 teams.  Tell me how many of those have been able to go undefeated in the last ten years?  Very small number, yes?  Hell, Alabama can’t even always do it, and they’d beat the Browns (pre coaching change haha).

 

Anyway, about ND.  They’re in.  They’re really good.  Do I think they beat Alabama?  No.  Do I think they beat Clemson?  Probably not.  But to say that they have 0% chance in that game makes your credibility suspect.

 

Or should I say, more suspect than it already was?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I can’t tell the future. I can only estimate based on past performance. With some teams that can be a good predictor. With a team like Ohio state who has top end potential with middle of the road play that’s tough. Note that they have been top 6 all year in the metrics but consistently underperformed. Notre Dame had a great season no doubt. But it was also partially fueled by several teams with historically down seasons like USC Stanford and Florida state. USC and Florida state have zero excuses as they are loaded with talent. Notre Dame did schedule what should be a hard schedule so it’s not their fault the teams didn’t perform all year. 

 

My biggest issue is that this playoff is really a farce if Ohio state and Oklahoma and Georgia can’t all get a shot to win along with clemson Notre Dane and bama. Having to be perfect all year to win happens in no other sport. A 13 loss basketball team(UConn) won it all. I want to see conference champs games eliminated. Usually they hurt Notre Dame not having one. This year it helps. People are saying Georgia’s playoffs start here and if they can’t best bama they don’t deserve in but winning it all shouldn’t be the only factor to get in. 8 team playoff with 1 from each conference and 3 wild cards is the only fair way to do it. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 11/28/2018 at 1:55 PM, Rude said:

I can’t tell the future. I can only estimate based on past performance. With some teams that can be a good predictor. With a team like Ohio state who has top end potential with middle of the road play that’s tough. Note that they have been top 6 all year in the metrics but consistently underperformed. Notre Dame had a great season no doubt. But it was also partially fueled by several teams with historically down seasons like USC Stanford and Florida state. USC and Florida state have zero excuses as they are loaded with talent. Notre Dame did schedule what should be a hard schedule so it’s not their fault the teams didn’t perform all year. 

 

My biggest issue is that this playoff is really a farce if Ohio state and Oklahoma and Georgia can’t all get a shot to win along with clemson Notre Dane and bama. Having to be perfect all year to win happens in no other sport. A 13 loss basketball team(UConn) won it all. I want to see conference champs games eliminated. Usually they hurt Notre Dame not having one. This year it helps. People are saying Georgia’s playoffs start here and if they can’t best bama they don’t deserve in but winning it all shouldn’t be the only factor to get in. 8 team playoff with 1 from each conference and 3 wild cards is the only fair way to do it. 

How do you feel About the Pac 12., BIG 12 and ACC? You seem to be fixated on belittling  the Big 10

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Acc is horrible this year. Big 12 is always bad defense. But they are scary offense. 

 

On another note I saw 2 predicted bowl games

uk vs penn state

a&m vs northwestern. 

 

If you flipped those, that would be 2 good matchups. As it is neither is a compelling game. 78th vs 40th s&p+ game for The I’m one and 2 top 20 for the penn state one. A&M far superior to Kentucky regardless of 1 less loss for Kentucky.  I think penn state vs A&M would be fantastic matchup and Kentucky vs northwestern would be a 10-7 final score in OT that would give their fans what they expect—Poor offense. Whoever wins is up to which kicker is luckier. 

 

We will miss the Georgia bama ending being at the anthem but it’s replayed at 10pm so we can catch the ending after. I think it’s going to be a great game. Georgia is peaking. They are a run 1st with very efficient passing which is Georgia style. Georgia needs to get pressure to not let Tua find one of the 3-4 1st rounder targets he has. How do you cover them all if he has time. The answer is you can’t. 

 

How bout them cowboys!!!!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Chatbox

    Please do not post support requests here. Use Private Message.
    Load More
    You don't have permission to chat.
  • Recently Browsing
     
     

    No registered users viewing this page.

     
×