Forum MVP Rude Posted December 17, 2015 Forum MVP Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 image upload no compression Based on this the SEC has the 2,5,11,13,16,19,22,23,24 ranked teams. Yeah extremely weak at the top. The big ten has the 3,14,18,26,27 teams. Subtract the 2 teams FPI number from the other to predict the spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Tom Banjo Posted December 17, 2015 Forum MVP Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 It's a known fact that Randy Moss took plays off. TO too. Yes all that make league play hard most of the time. These guys definitely put it all out there when their number was called. I think you're missing the point. I think it's unfair to assume that Iowa will suffer a letdown because of the loss. I think they will be ready to play. Maybe character is wrong word. Most seniors on Iowa, this is their last game. No juniors going early. I think they will play their heart out. They don't have to worry about pro workouts or staying healthy. They will put it all on the line. I believe that. Hopefully it leads to a win. The SEC kids will play hard too. Hopefully they play hard enough to win. You're the one that brought up that the teams just didn't show up last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP bs69 Posted December 17, 2015 Author Forum MVP Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 I agree to an extent. The problem is it doesn't take into account the human factor, which is huge in bowl games. Some teams have a lot higher motivation in bowl games than others and that won't be reflected in FPI or the initial spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Tom Banjo Posted December 17, 2015 Forum MVP Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 Better hope your schools win or FPI going to look real dumb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP bs69 Posted December 17, 2015 Author Forum MVP Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 I am guessing it also doesn't take injuries into account given that it has Baylor 4? Michigan State was decimated by injuries through the middle of their season and was just getting healthy at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Rude Posted December 17, 2015 Forum MVP Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 The FPI is the best predictor of who will win and it has been for years. But it doesn't take into account injuries hence Baylor way up there and the 76% takes into account mismatches too. And spreads don't mean a team will win. It has auburn as a 56% fav. That's a Tossup. Tennessee losing would be a huge one as they are big favs over a weak team. If the SEC won 8 it would be more than could be expected. The are underdogs in 1 game and a Tossup in another. If they lost those 2 that means they would have to win 100% of the rest. I think Memphis is a bad matchup for auburn. Memphis is an explosive team and this is not a great auburn D. But auburn has lots of young talent and a few extra weeks will help them more than Memphis who is already pretty fine tuned on offense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Rude Posted December 17, 2015 Forum MVP Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 If you looked at the FPI regular season you would see lots of 95% favorites to win like when Ohio state played Rutgers. There's none of that with the bowl games. Most games are in the 50-60% chance of winning which means anything can happen. It also has Oklahoma as the favorite to win it all at 38% chance then Bama at 32 then Clemson at 17 and mich St at 10% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP bs69 Posted December 18, 2015 Author Forum MVP Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 I like Indiana -2, Arkansas -11.5 and Michigan St. +9.5 a lot. The games start tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Rude Posted December 18, 2015 Forum MVP Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 Louisville is the pick. A&Mis in shambles. Both top QBs are leaving the school. Discord badly when they need to focus. Would have loved to got in a bet when A&M was a good favorite. Now Louisville is the fav. Kyle Allen and their 5 star freshman QB are both leaving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Rude Posted December 18, 2015 Forum MVP Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 I also like Michigan but floridas D is better and Florida has 3 weeks to figure out an offense. Michigan peaked too early. Guessing injuries Weakened that D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP bs69 Posted December 18, 2015 Author Forum MVP Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 I'm not going to pick Michigan, practically a home game for Florida. It is too late for the Louisville pick like you said. Houston intrigues me, Florida St. may mail it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Rude Posted December 18, 2015 Forum MVP Report Share Posted December 18, 2015 Florida state gets talent second only to Bama but can't seem to put it all together lately. They won it all with Winston a few years ago but have disappointed lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Rude Posted December 27, 2015 Forum MVP Report Share Posted December 27, 2015 thet IU v Duke was a great/stinker game. Great finish and back and forth lead changes but just pathetic, nonexistent defense. The announcers continued to credit wide open drops as defensive stands. Horrible play calling by both sides. The average run was like 10yds a carry. Indiana and Duke continued to pass horribly after nice runs. Dropped passes doomed Indiana and interceptions by Duke after back to back 15 yard runs hurt them. We were screaming run the freaking ball. Fun finish though. Too many bowl games. 6-6 Tulsa allows 45 in the 1st half and we get a 5-7 Nebraska tonight. Can't wait til real games start soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Rude Posted December 31, 2015 Forum MVP Report Share Posted December 31, 2015 Did anyone see that Louisville A&Mgame. That Louisville freshman QB is going to be great. He awed me in the 1st half. A&Mwas pretty much hapless losing their top 2 QBs but were down to the 20 with a chance to win late. Louisvilles wr's dropped so many passes or it wouldn't have been close. If you didn't see the game their QB had 200 rushing yards. He looked as dangerous as any running QB I've ever seen. Crazy moves and instinct. If you are 1 on 1 in the open field you were not going to tackle him. He reminded me of our boxer when we were young. The second you started to go one way he'd instantly react to cut and turn you around. He had a pretty solid arm as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Rude Posted January 1, 2016 Forum MVP Report Share Posted January 1, 2016 How good is Bama's D. holy shit. Plus they are so deep that you always have elite fresh talent in the game. Sabin is a great coach, but you can't teach the athletic ability that is on that team. Ridley is another superstar 5-star freshman and he showed how good he is. Coker played a perfect safe game. Think he was over 80% passing. Henry wasn't needed. Michigan state focused on the run and contained Henry so Coker mostly passed. Fun game if u like bama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP acududeman Posted January 1, 2016 Forum MVP Report Share Posted January 1, 2016 Here's hoping that Clemson can pull a miracle out of the Tiger hat and figure out how to beat Bama.......will be a tall order.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Rude Posted January 1, 2016 Forum MVP Report Share Posted January 1, 2016 Clemson probably has a 1 in 4 shot of winning. Turnovers happen. Watson will likely scramble for some timely 1st downs. Michigan state was an easy matchup. A running QB is a different animal. The problem for Clemson is the front 4 of Alabamas D. After a few hits on the QB, the QB begins to throw earlier than he wants or starts to scramble early. This is when bama starts to get interceptions like tonight. Cook did as good as he could with only 2 interceptions. Traditional run offense can't work vs bama. You are trying to run against 4 guys who will all be playing on Sunday's and are just exceptional tacklers and relentless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Rude Posted January 1, 2016 Forum MVP Report Share Posted January 1, 2016 So let's look at true rankings of teams vs this nonsense AP poll. Tennessee 11 FPI vs northwestern 55th FPI. 39 point win for Tennessee. If you look at AP rankings you would think the 12th ranked northwestern should win over the 25th ranked team. Lmao. Northwestern would be dead last in the SEC west and would be lucky to finish 2-6 in the conference. Alabama 2nd FPI vs 17th Michigan state. Domination. Ohio state 3rd FPI vs 10th Notre dame. Ohio state handling the game easily. Ohio state was always the class of the big ten. It would have been a much different game if they played Bama vs the outclassed Michigan state. Another game with a huge FPI discrepancy is 9th Stanford vs 29th Iowa. The spread should be right at 7 based on this. They still have to play the game but Iowa is top 10 AP vs 29th FPI. One issue with the FPI is even losing a QB like Florida the past games count. Florida completely fell apart after losing their solid QB, will Grier. They should have been around 40th FPI. Michigan who is really the 2nd best big ten team destroyed them and Michigan will finish the year with a higher FPI than Michigan state as they went into the game only 2 spots behind them. To the AP a loss is a loss. It doesn't matter that northwestern lost 2 straight by an average of 30 points each and they played lots of weak teams just like it didn't matter that Tennessee was leading 2 playoff teams in the 4th quarter and lost their 4 games to elite teams by a total of 17 points. AP pretty much ranks straight down the line of your record with a few spots jump for a hard schedule. You have a couple 3 loss teams jumping a 2 loss team here and there but it's pretty much a nonsense poll to me. If I'm ACC in the weakest conference I really like the AP as my cupcake schedule will get me ranked. Wisconsin finally beat their 1st team with a winning record but they were ranked. Lost all 3 games to teams with winning records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP bs69 Posted January 2, 2016 Author Forum MVP Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 I was really impressed by the play of Coker, that was the difference. If he can make the throws he did against Michigan state against Clemson, they will win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Rude Posted January 2, 2016 Forum MVP Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 I was really impressed by the play of Coker, that was the difference. If he can make the throws he did against Michigan state against Clemson, they will win. If Alabama plays the defense they have the potential to play, they won't need it. That game wasn't even a top 3 defensive performance from them this year IMO. Half of Fournettes runs never made it back to the line of scrimmage vs lsu and they sacked Dak Prescott 9x holding that explosive offense to only 6 points. Clemson will get 1st downs from QB runs to extend some drives. Luckily for Bama, their defenders are as fast as clemsons QB and they tackle so well. Actually I was impressed with Michigan states defense. Iowas defense, not so much. They are filled with scrubs and horrible tacklers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP bs69 Posted January 2, 2016 Author Forum MVP Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 I have to say that overall the games were not very good. It would have helped if they had matched Ohio state with Stanford and Iowa with Notre Dame yesterday. Hopefully the championship game is a bit closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Rude Posted January 3, 2016 Forum MVP Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 Not to gloat but the SEC was 8-2 overall and 8-2 against the spread. They lost the 2 they were underdogs in. The FPI held in 9 of the games. The only game it didn't hold in was the Louisville A&M game that Louisville was favored in but not in the FPI b/c it didn't take into account that A&M was in turmoil losing their 2 5-star QBs. Most of the games were blowouts. SEC defenses showed what having monster recruiting classes does for you. And SEC offenses showed that the reason they don't score 40 a game is b/c they have to play each other. Michigan state and northwestern were handed their biggest losses of the year. Note that I don't blame Michigan state. They actually impressed me in their 38 point loss. Alabama can just be too dominant if they don't commit turnovers. the biggest thing I noticed is tackling. 2nd tier defenses like Iowa, Oklahoma state, northwestern lack that tackling ability in space to bring down talented athletes. Regarding the Big ten, Ohio state is by far the class of that league. It's again proof that recruiting is the most important thing in college football. Any Ohio state fan will tell you how badly coached they were this year, but their overwhelming pro talent kept them at only 1 loss for the year as they had no competition. 3 weeks off and they got their act together and destroyed Notre dame. Ohio state vs Alabama was the game we all wanted to see and would have been a great one I think. Unfortunately bad coaching led to either Iowa or mich St getting that slot. Bad schedules have to be addressed as Iowa St and Michigan state were WAY over ranked. As I stated most of the year there would be 5 SEC undefeated with Iowas schedule at least until the conference championship. Other notes--if Chad Kelly comes back to ole miss they will be a top 5 team. Unfortunately they will lose 3 top 15 picks in the NFL draft. Chad Kelly won the punt pass kick contest at age 14 with a 70 yard pass. Wow. I've got to think he will be drafted top 5 QB. Tennessee will win the sec east next year. They were the best 1st 3 quarter team in the nation this year losing all 4 games in the 4th by a total of 17 points. Ohio state will go undefeated next year. Michigan will be their only hurdle and it may be a huge hurdle. Harbaugh and floridas coach are my co-coach of the year. If Florida didn't lose their QB it would be hands down muschamp, but harbaugh was pretty amazing. Once he gets some talent watch out. He did it this year with many horrible recruiting classes. Wait until he gets his players he wants. He's as good as saban IMO. U give him the plYers and he's going to destroy teams. Still 2 classes away from a shot at a championship. Connor cook is a scrub. 54% passing for the year and that includes some bad competition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Tom Banjo Posted January 3, 2016 Forum MVP Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 SEC looked good. Your are gloating and it's okay to do so. The teams showed up and you guys stay the class of football for another year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Rude Posted January 3, 2016 Forum MVP Report Share Posted January 3, 2016 Well so far the sec has 7 of top 10 classes for next year with the big ten having 2 of the other 3. Note the big recruits hacent signed yet so this will change. And as you saw, top recruits make defenses. SEC will continue to be the class of football as they consistently get the top talent out there. Teams like Ohio state will continue to win their conference as really no one else recruits there. Only Clemson and Florida state in the ACC pull top 40 classes so one of them will get in every year. So get ready for another year of SEC having 9-10 top 25 teams and then they start having to play each other and alabama will drop lots from the rankings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP bs69 Posted January 4, 2016 Author Forum MVP Report Share Posted January 4, 2016 I think you're right about Tennessee, they have Bama and Florida both at home next year. It will be interesting to see how many players Bama and Ohio State lose to the pros. The SEC did very well as expected, kind of a mixed bag for everyone else. I don't know what to make of A&M, they can't seem to keep a QB. Not sure what to make of Grier leaving Florida either, their season sure ended with a thud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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