Forum MVP bs69 Posted December 6, 2015 Author Forum MVP Report Share Posted December 6, 2015 Should be good, looking forward to seeing the matchups today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP bs69 Posted December 6, 2015 Author Forum MVP Report Share Posted December 6, 2015 Would have been nice to see if North Carolina could have tied the game after recovering the on side kick. It's a shame the zebra remembered he was an ACC ref and threw a phantom flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Rude Posted December 6, 2015 Forum MVP Report Share Posted December 6, 2015 If Clemson retains the number 1 we will get mich st/Bama 1st round. Alabama may lose to okl but they won't lose to anyone else. Would have been nice to see if North Carolina could have tied the game after recovering the on side kick. It's a shame the zebra remembered he was an ACC ref and threw a phantom flag. One of the worst calls ever. I had my dvr going back and forward and was like wtf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP bs69 Posted December 6, 2015 Author Forum MVP Report Share Posted December 6, 2015 Got your wish, but I am not sure that is your best match up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Rude Posted December 6, 2015 Forum MVP Report Share Posted December 6, 2015 Oklahoma is a 3 point fav as the 4 seed. Bama is a 9 point fav. Bama got the good draw. Oklahoma would be a fav over Bama with the point spread metrics. People can argue against metrics all they want but when money is involved it's the most accurate predictor there is. Looks like 8-4 Tennessee may play 10th ranked northwestern as well. I'll predict a spread of Tennessee -12 points. How can a 10th ranked be a 12 point underdog to a 25th ranked people may say. It's b/c the polls reward only win loss and don't take schedule into account like it should and are complete horse shit. Vegas metrics are 77% accurate predicting winners and losers. Vegas metrics are not disclosed but the ESPN FPI is based on them with a 75% accuracy. The Vegas metrics had mich state winning while the polls had Iowa winning. Michigan state better do a better job tackling if they want to stay with Bama b/c Bama's front doesn't miss tackles. If I'm Michigan State in my 3 weeks of practice I switch to almost a pure passing offense. Bama doesn't have the secondary of years past. That's their weakest point even though it's still better than most teams in the country. It's not possible to run against Bama. They are just that good up front. They can get beat long though. But to throw long you must block their 4 man rush and that's not an easy task. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Tom Banjo Posted December 6, 2015 Forum MVP Report Share Posted December 6, 2015 Cook over Coker. Iowa and Ohio st better wins they any team Alabama beat this year. I like the spartans chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP acududeman Posted December 6, 2015 Forum MVP Report Share Posted December 6, 2015 Spartans over Bama for the title...... Â Oops....Spartans over Bama for chance at crown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP acududeman Posted December 6, 2015 Forum MVP Report Share Posted December 6, 2015 Would have been nice to see if North Carolina could have tied the game after recovering the on side kick. It's a shame the zebra remembered he was an ACC ref and threw a phantom flag. Â Agreed.....I surprised myself when I found myself pulling for UNC to upset Clemson. Â Terrible and costly call.....ACC refs have really stunk it up this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP bs69 Posted December 6, 2015 Author Forum MVP Report Share Posted December 6, 2015 Michigan state is getting healthy. They had a bunch of injuries like TCU in the middle of the year. I'll take northwestern and the 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP bs69 Posted December 6, 2015 Author Forum MVP Report Share Posted December 6, 2015 The key to betting bowl games is to look for the teams that want to be there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Rude Posted December 6, 2015 Forum MVP Report Share Posted December 6, 2015 Cook over Coker. Iowa and Ohio st better wins they any team Alabama beat this year. I like the spartans chances. Bama has 9 wins over teams with at least 8 victories. 9 top 30 FPI games. 6/7 sec west teams are better than Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Rude Posted December 6, 2015 Forum MVP Report Share Posted December 6, 2015 Also Bama played 9-10 teams who will be in bowls. How many bowl teams did Iowa play. Joke schedules. Bama played all 8 conference games against teams with winning records. Bama has a top 3 SOS depending on the ranking. Don't try to pull this Bama weak schedule nonsense. Also the 2nd best conference behind the SEC, the PAC 12 got a taste of what it's like every year in the sec. They all beat up on each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP bs69 Posted December 16, 2015 Author Forum MVP Report Share Posted December 16, 2015 I noticed looking at spreads today that 9 out of 10 SEC teams are favored in their bowls. I would have to think that anything less than 7-8 wins would be disappointing. I think this is a reflection of the league having a lot of good teams, but only Alabama as a truly great team. With only two teams in the New Years six, a lot of their teams are playing down a level from where they should be to get a good matchup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Rude Posted December 16, 2015 Forum MVP Report Share Posted December 16, 2015 The reason that they are all favored is that the polls are bullshit. 9 sec teams are in the top 25 of the FPI which is a spread based metric. This is what I've talked about all year. AP polls are bullshit and compare everyone evenly regardless of schedule. Northwestern and Wisconsin are prime examples of crap teams who played crap schedules and are highly ranked. Unranked Tennessee is going to destroy 12th ranked northwestern. Northwestern is ranked around 50th in the FPI while Tennessee is 12tg I think. The SEC beats up on itself. The west has no weak teams. Again next year the SEC is getting most of the top talented recruits. They are actually recruiting better and better every year as they add a higher percentage of the top talent. Last year the SEC got 1/2, a whole 50% of the 5 star athletes. These are the Percy Hardins, Reggie bush's, Jameis winstons. These are the ones with the highest potential. Yes unranked athletes sometimes go pros but rarely do non at least 3 star players(1500 3-stars) go pro. There's a reason why Bamas defense is so amazing. They have speed and strength that you can't teach. Ohio state had a bad year but their talent is off the charts and won games for them. If you look at the top teams, every single one of them besides Iowa and northwestern recruit top 20 classes annually and Clemson Alabama Notre dame and Ohio state recruit top 10 every year. It's not Coaching. It's talent with coaching. Indiana isn't a bad team b/c coaching. It's recruiting. They did a good job coaching to get 6-6. You just can't do much more without big talent unless u hVe a horrible schedule like Wisconsin who beat 9 teams with a losing record. They lost all 3 to teams with a winning record and they are ranked. Tennessee lost 4 games by 17 total points including 2 teams in the playoffs and were leading every game at 1 point. Who is more deserving. Wisconsin or Tennessee. Well the FPI accurately ranks teams based on money. Money is the 1 thing that will eliminate bias. Sports writers are biased. Have them pull out their wallets and see if they had Iowa above Ohio state if those 2 played. I even read an article by an uninformed yahoo sports writer using records as a basis yo pick games and said that northwestern at 10-2 should have an easy win over Tennessee at 8-4. I'm like wtf. They are 10 point underdogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Tom Banjo Posted December 16, 2015 Forum MVP Report Share Posted December 16, 2015 Last year. SEC didn't show up in bowl games. I be pulling for northwestern. I'd probably be less inclined to pull for against the SEC but the fans of that conference and their fans are so damn arrogant. Better hope you win these games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Rude Posted December 16, 2015 Forum MVP Report Share Posted December 16, 2015 They are no more arrogant than USC fans or Florida state or Ohio state fans. Yes the top talent has a higher concentration in the SEC b/c they invest tons of money into facilities. You get bigger games all through the year. You don't have to wait for 8 weeks to have a big game like the big 10 and 12. Sec starts conference the earliest hence earlier losses. The criticism of Bamas cupcake at the end of the year was baloney as other teams started the year with 4 straight cupcakes. The bowls schedules usually put like the big ten 4 vs the sec 6 or the acc 5 vs the sec 8 and still the sec is favored in most games. For the sec to not be favored you would have to only schedule them in bowls vs the top 15 teams and that's not viable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Rude Posted December 16, 2015 Forum MVP Report Share Posted December 16, 2015 I noticed looking at spreads today that 9 out of 10 SEC teams are favored in their bowls. I would have to think that anything less than 7-8 wins would be disappointing. I think this is a reflection of the league having a lot of good teams, but only Alabama as a truly great team. With only two teams in the New Years six, a lot of their teams are playing down a level from where they should be to get a good matchup. The FPI predicts the SEC will win 6.5/10 of the games. 2 games have spreads which are in essence Tossups(less than 3 points). Most of the others are 7 points or less. To say that you either win 7-8 or you are a failure means that you agree that the SEC is the overwhelming conference and anything other than domination is unacceptable. Last years .500 record was as bad as the SEC has performed in years. It's funny when you win half of pretty evenly paired games that you ended up a failure. I predict that Iowa will face the letdown that ole miss and miss St had last year as they wanted to make the playoffs. When you are in position for a playoff and lose that shot a bowl game will depress u. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Tom Banjo Posted December 16, 2015 Forum MVP Report Share Posted December 16, 2015 Iowa kids have less talent but more character. They shoe up to play. If they lose, it's cause they not good enough not cause they quit. These guys aren't concerned with staying healthy for pro careers. They will give their all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Rude Posted December 17, 2015 Forum MVP Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 Iowa kids have less talent but more character. They shoe up to play. If they lose, it's cause they not good enough not cause they quit. These guys aren't concerned with staying healthy for pro careers. They will give their all. Sorry bud but that's the dumbest thing I've heard u say. Not sure if it has to do with race as Iowa is way more white but to say less talented kids have more character. Is this referring to me suggesting that Fournette sit out a year. Btw he never said that and he has more fight than anyone on Iowa. And Iowa won b/c they had a weak schedule, not because of so much heart. They got to avoid Michigan and Ohio state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Tom Banjo Posted December 17, 2015 Forum MVP Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 Surprised you would play the race card. Im not aware of the race of kids on Iowa or Alabama or anyone else for that matter. I typically find less talented players to play harder. Kyrie Irving vs Matthew delladova or is that about race too. Maybe I'm wrong but Randy Moss took off more plays than Marvin Harrison. Moss more talent. I think that's real unfair to Iowa to say Fournette has more fight than anyone on their team. Are you suggesting that white kids don't have fight? Local kid Tom Kelly. He didn't have an athletic bone in his body. He played and worked harder than anyone. Never saw the field. Acquired nickname Rudy. I'm sure you can come up with other examples of talented guys who put it all out there but Clowney and jemarcus russell aren't helping you right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP bs69 Posted December 17, 2015 Author Forum MVP Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 My point was merely that the SEC only had two teams playing in the new years six this year and the big ten has three. Therefore the big ten 4 is playing the SEC 3 and so on in the bowls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Rude Posted December 17, 2015 Forum MVP Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 if you don't give your all you don't make it in the NFL. It's a league that doesn't give a shit where u were drafted. It's for men and 6th round picks play over 1st round picks. Randy moss played hard. You can't not play hard in the NFL and succeed. Some of these guys make it look easy b/c of talent but they are playing hard. Lazy players may play a year or 2 but you don't have NFL careers being lazy. There is always someone younger wanting to take your job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Rude Posted December 17, 2015 Forum MVP Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 My point was merely that the SEC only had two teams playing in the new years six this year and the big ten has three. Therefore the big ten 4 is playing the SEC 3 and so on in the bowls. It's b/c the polls are baloney. Only Ohio state is in the FPI top 12 from the big ten. Iowa is 28th based on actual play. If you play scrubs u can have good records. Ohio state who is actually good never got to prove it playing onli 2 teams in the FPI top 50 all year. No one in the sec west lost to anyone lower than top 50 so there could be 7 teams from the SEC that could be 11-1 or 12-0 or 10-2 if they played that schedule. Michigan state had an equally bad schedule. 3-4 top 50 teams. Bama played 10 top 30 teams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP bs69 Posted December 17, 2015 Author Forum MVP Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 What is this FPI? There is definitely something wrong if you think Michigan St. had a bad schedule. The fact is that the SEC did not have another team worthy of a New Years Six bowl. They have good depth, but are weak at the top other than Alabama. I fully expect the SEC to do quite well in the bowls and they should, but they are going to get hammered if they don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forum MVP Rude Posted December 17, 2015 Forum MVP Report Share Posted December 17, 2015 theres a reason 9/10 sec teams are favorites. It's because they are much better than they are ranked. The big ten based on spreads is WAY over ranked. Iowa, Michigan St and northwestern are big underdogs. That's crazy right since they are all top 12 in the AP. The FPI is espns power rating and it picks winners and losers and is on par with the Vegas line which is the most accurate picker of winners and losers. You can use the FPI to figure any spread of any game. It's how I predicted the Tennessee northwestern spread within 2 points before the game was announced. It's an awesome tool. It's how I said that Oklahoma will be the favorite over any team in the nation. Its why Iowa is a big underdog to Stanford. It's why Ohio state was a big fav over Michigan state. It's around 76% accurate on picking games which is slightly less than the Vegas line but way better than the AP nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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